FC Chiasso 1–1 Zürich II: Result & Stats

FC Chiasso

FT

1 – 1

Zürich II

A. Maccoppi 39' (pen)

H. Koide 16'

10/3/2021

1. Liga Promotion · Round 9Stadio Comunale di Chiasso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

FC Chiasso49%

×Draw24%

Zürich II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC ChiassoExpected goals in this matchZürich II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.23

FC Chiasso

1.75

Zürich II

1.23

FC Chiasso creates 42% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 104 away

1.74

creates per match

1.53

0.93

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

FC Chiasso

1.74

Zürich II

1.53

allows per match

FC Chiasso

0.93

Zürich II

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Chiasso+0.00on par

Zürich II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Chiasso ↓

Zürich II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

FC Chiasso or draw

73%

FC Chiasso or Zürich II

76%

Draw or Zürich II

51%

Winning margin

FC Chiasso wins by 2+

27%

Zürich II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FC Chiasso 1+ goals

83%

FC Chiasso 2+ goals

52%

FC Chiasso 3+ goals

25%

Zürich II 1+ goals

71%

Zürich II 2+ goals

35%

Zürich II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

FC Chiasso (draw refunded)

65%

Zürich II (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Chiasso at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.93 · 27 matches

Zürich II away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.77 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Chiasso attack 1.74 + Zürich II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.75

Zürich II attack 1.53 + FC Chiasso defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Chiasso scores more

49%

level

24%

Zürich II scores more

27%

FC Chiasso at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Chiasso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

H. Koide

39'

A. MaccoppiPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff