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Zürich II vs Delémont — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Zürich II
Zürich II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Delémont
Delémont
2/15/20251. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 19Sportanlage Heerenschürli Platz 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zürich II49%
×Draw23%
Delémont28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zürich II
1.80
Delémont
1.31

Zürich II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 34 away

creates per match

Zürich II
1.75
Delémont
1.12

allows per match

Zürich II
1.50
Delémont
1.85

finishing

Zürich II+0.00on par
Delémont+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zürich II ↓

Delémont →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Zürich II or draw
72%
Zürich II or Delémont
77%
Draw or Delémont
51%

Winning margin

Zürich II wins by 2+
27%
Delémont wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zürich II 1+ goals
83%
Zürich II 2+ goals
54%
Zürich II 3+ goals
27%
Delémont 1+ goals
73%
Delémont 2+ goals
38%
Delémont 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zürich II (draw refunded)
64%
Delémont (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zürich II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 104 matches

Delémont away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.85 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zürich II attack 1.75 + Delémont defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.80

Delémont attack 1.12 + Zürich II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zürich II scores more
49%
level
23%
Delémont scores more
28%

Zürich II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zürich II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zürich II vs Delémont

Zürich II and Delémont drew 1-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on February 15, 2025.

The match was played at Sportanlage Heerenschürli Platz 15 in Zürich.