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Delémont vs Zürich II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Delémont
Delémont
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Zürich II
Zürich II
8/10/20241. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 2Stade de La Blancherie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Delémont43%
×Draw23%
Zürich II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delémont
1.75
Zürich II
1.55

Delémont creates 13% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 105 away

creates per match

Delémont
1.71
Zürich II
1.51

allows per match

Delémont
1.59
Zürich II
1.80

finishing

Delémont+0.00on par
Zürich II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delémont ↓

Zürich II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Delémont or draw
66%
Delémont or Zürich II
77%
Draw or Zürich II
57%

Winning margin

Delémont wins by 2+
22%
Zürich II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Delémont 1+ goals
83%
Delémont 2+ goals
52%
Delémont 3+ goals
25%
Zürich II 1+ goals
79%
Zürich II 2+ goals
46%
Zürich II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Delémont (draw refunded)
55%
Zürich II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delémont at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

Zürich II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.80 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delémont attack 1.71 + Zürich II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.75

Zürich II attack 1.51 + Delémont defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Delémont scores more
43%
level
23%
Zürich II scores more
34%

Delémont at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Delémont will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Delémont vs Zürich II

Zürich II beat Delémont 2-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de La Blancherie in Delémont.