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Zürich II vs Basel II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Zürich II
Zürich II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Basel II
Basel II
5/24/20251. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 34Sportanlage Utogrund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Zürich II42%
×Draw23%
Basel II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zürich II
1.75
Basel II
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 106 away

creates per match

Zürich II
1.75
Basel II
1.70

allows per match

Zürich II
1.50
Basel II
1.75

finishing

Zürich II+0.00on par
Basel II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zürich II ↓

Basel II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Zürich II or draw
65%
Zürich II or Basel II
77%
Draw or Basel II
58%

Winning margin

Zürich II wins by 2+
22%
Basel II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Zürich II 1+ goals
83%
Zürich II 2+ goals
52%
Zürich II 3+ goals
25%
Basel II 1+ goals
80%
Basel II 2+ goals
47%
Basel II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Zürich II (draw refunded)
54%
Basel II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zürich II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 104 matches

Basel II away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.75 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zürich II attack 1.75 + Basel II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.75

Basel II attack 1.70 + Zürich II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zürich II scores more
42%
level
23%
Basel II scores more
35%

Zürich II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zürich II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zürich II vs Basel II

Zürich II beat Basel II 3-0 in 1. Liga Promotion on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Sportanlage Utogrund in Zürich.