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Basel II vs Zürich II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Basel II
Basel II
FT
4 – 4
HT: 4 – 2
Zürich II
Zürich II
8/9/20251. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 2Leichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Basel II43%
×Draw22%
Zürich II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Basel II
1.85
Zürich II
1.63

Basel II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 105 away

creates per match

Basel II
1.90
Zürich II
1.51

allows per match

Basel II
1.74
Zürich II
1.80

finishing

Basel II+0.00on par
Zürich II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Basel II ↓

Zürich II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Basel II or draw
66%
Basel II or Zürich II
78%
Draw or Zürich II
57%

Winning margin

Basel II wins by 2+
23%
Zürich II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Basel II 1+ goals
84%
Basel II 2+ goals
55%
Basel II 3+ goals
28%
Zürich II 1+ goals
80%
Zürich II 2+ goals
48%
Zürich II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Basel II (draw refunded)
56%
Zürich II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Basel II at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.74 · 103 matches

Zürich II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.80 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Basel II attack 1.90 + Zürich II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.85

Zürich II attack 1.51 + Basel II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Basel II scores more
43%
level
22%
Zürich II scores more
34%

Basel II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Basel II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Basel II 4–4 Zürich II

Basel II and Zürich II drew 4-4 in 1. Liga Promotion on August 9, 2025.

The match was played at Leichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob in Basel.