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Župa vs Radan — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Župa
Župa
FT
1 – 0
Radan
Radan
11/8/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 16Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Župa33%
×Draw23%
Radan44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Župa
1.50
Radan
1.78

Radan creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 27 away

creates per match

Župa
1.53
Radan
1.56

allows per match

Župa
2.00
Radan
1.48

finishing

Župa+0.00on par
Radan+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Župa ↓

Radan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Župa or draw
56%
Župa or Radan
77%
Draw or Radan
67%

Winning margin

Župa wins by 2+
15%
Radan wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Župa 1+ goals
78%
Župa 2+ goals
44%
Župa 3+ goals
19%
Radan 1+ goals
83%
Radan 2+ goals
53%
Radan 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Župa (draw refunded)
42%
Radan (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Župa at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

Radan away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.48 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Župa attack 1.53 + Radan defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.50

Radan attack 1.56 + Župa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Župa scores more
33%
level
23%
Radan scores more
44%

Radan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Radan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Župa 1 – 0 Radan

Župa beat Radan 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Aleksandrovac.