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Radan vs Župa — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Radan
Radan
FT
6 – 1
Župa
Župa
5/19/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 35Gradski Stadion FK Radan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Radan65%
×Draw19%
Župa16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radan
2.27
Župa
1.02

Radan creates 123% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 19 away

creates per match

Radan
1.96
Župa
1.26

allows per match

Radan
0.79
Župa
2.58

finishing

Radan+0.00on par
Župa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radan ↓

Župa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Radan or draw
84%
Radan or Župa
81%
Draw or Župa
35%

Winning margin

Radan wins by 2+
42%
Župa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Radan 1+ goals
90%
Radan 2+ goals
66%
Radan 3+ goals
39%
Župa 1+ goals
64%
Župa 2+ goals
27%
Župa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Radan (draw refunded)
80%
Župa (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radan at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Župa away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radan attack 1.96 + Župa defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.27

Župa attack 1.26 + Radan defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Radan scores more
65%
level
19%
Župa scores more
16%

Radan at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Radan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Radan 6 – 1 Župa

Radan beat Župa 6-1 in Srpska Liga - East on May 19, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion FK Radan in Lebane.