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Zumbi vs Igaci — Alagoano - 2 2024

Zumbi
Zumbi
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Igaci
Igaci
Palhinha 71'
11/9/2024Alagoano - 2Alagoano - 2 · FinalsEstádio Municipal Orlando Gomes de Barros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Zumbi37%
×Draw35%
Igaci28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zumbi
0.90
Igaci
0.75

Zumbi creates 20% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

creates per match

Zumbi
1.50
Igaci
1.00

allows per match

Zumbi
0.50
Igaci
0.29

finishing

Zumbi+0.00on par
Igaci+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zumbi ↓

Igaci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Zumbi or draw
72%
Zumbi or Igaci
65%
Draw or Igaci
63%

Winning margin

Zumbi wins by 2+
13%
Igaci wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zumbi 1+ goals
59%
Zumbi 2+ goals
23%
Zumbi 3+ goals
6%
Igaci 1+ goals
53%
Igaci 2+ goals
17%
Igaci 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Zumbi (draw refunded)
56%
Igaci (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zumbi at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 16 matches

Igaci away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zumbi attack 1.50 + Igaci defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.90

Igaci attack 1.00 + Zumbi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Zumbi scores more
37%
level
35%
Igaci scores more
28%

Zumbi at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Zumbi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
Ramos
71'
Diogo
71'
Palhinha

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zumbi 0 – 1 Igaci

Igaci beat Zumbi 1-0 in Alagoano - 2 on November 9, 2024.

Goals: Palhinha (71').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Orlando Gomes de Barros in União dos Palmares, Alagoas.