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Igaci vs Zumbi — Alagoano - 2 2024

Igaci
Igaci
FT
0 – 0
Zumbi
Zumbi
11/2/2024Alagoano - 2Alagoano - 2 · FinalsEstádio Municipal Zequinha Barbosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Igaci56%
×Draw27%
Zumbi17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Igaci
1.44
Zumbi
0.66

Igaci creates 118% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

creates per match

Igaci
2.33
Zumbi
1.15

allows per match

Igaci
0.17
Zumbi
0.54

finishing

Igaci+0.00on par
Zumbi+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igaci ↓

Zumbi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Igaci or draw
83%
Igaci or Zumbi
73%
Draw or Zumbi
44%

Winning margin

Igaci wins by 2+
28%
Zumbi wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Igaci 1+ goals
76%
Igaci 2+ goals
42%
Igaci 3+ goals
18%
Zumbi 1+ goals
48%
Zumbi 2+ goals
14%
Zumbi 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Igaci (draw refunded)
77%
Zumbi (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igaci at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.17 · 6 matches

Zumbi away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igaci attack 2.33 + Zumbi defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 1.44

Zumbi attack 1.15 + Igaci defence 0.17 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Igaci scores more
56%
level
27%
Zumbi scores more
17%

Igaci at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Igaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alagoano - 2: Igaci 0–0 Zumbi

Igaci and Zumbi drew 0-0 in Alagoano - 2 on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Zequinha Barbosa in Igaci, Alagoas.