Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zulte Waregem vs Oostende — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Zulte Waregem
Zulte Waregem
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Oostende
Oostende
2/12/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 25Elindus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Zulte Waregem44%
×Draw23%
Oostende33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zulte Waregem
1.71
Oostende
1.46

Zulte Waregem creates 17% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 86 away

creates per match

Zulte Waregem
1.62
Oostende
1.02

allows per match

Zulte Waregem
1.89
Oostende
1.79

finishing

Zulte Waregem+0.00on par
Oostende+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulte Waregem ↓

Oostende →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Zulte Waregem or draw
67%
Zulte Waregem or Oostende
77%
Draw or Oostende
56%

Winning margin

Zulte Waregem wins by 2+
23%
Oostende wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zulte Waregem 1+ goals
82%
Zulte Waregem 2+ goals
51%
Zulte Waregem 3+ goals
24%
Oostende 1+ goals
77%
Oostende 2+ goals
43%
Oostende 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Zulte Waregem (draw refunded)
57%
Oostende (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulte Waregem at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.89 · 99 matches

Oostende away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.79 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulte Waregem attack 1.62 + Oostende defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

Oostende attack 1.02 + Zulte Waregem defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zulte Waregem scores more
44%
level
23%
Oostende scores more
33%

Zulte Waregem at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zulte Waregem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jupiler Pro League: Zulte Waregem 1–1 Oostende

Zulte Waregem and Oostende drew 1-1 in Jupiler Pro League on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Elindus Arena in Waregem.