Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zulte Waregem vs Oostende — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Zulte Waregem
Zulte Waregem
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Oostende
Oostende
J. Vossen 65'
G. Bruno 38'
F. Sakala 14'
1/31/2021Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 23Regenboogstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Zulte Waregem45%
×Draw23%
Oostende32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zulte Waregem
1.74
Oostende
1.42

Zulte Waregem creates 23% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 83 away

creates per match

Zulte Waregem
1.62
Oostende
0.96

allows per match

Zulte Waregem
1.89
Oostende
1.86

finishing

Zulte Waregem+0.00on par
Oostende+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulte Waregem ↓

Oostende →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Zulte Waregem or draw
68%
Zulte Waregem or Oostende
77%
Draw or Oostende
55%

Winning margin

Zulte Waregem wins by 2+
24%
Oostende wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Zulte Waregem 1+ goals
82%
Zulte Waregem 2+ goals
52%
Zulte Waregem 3+ goals
25%
Oostende 1+ goals
76%
Oostende 2+ goals
41%
Oostende 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Zulte Waregem (draw refunded)
59%
Oostende (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulte Waregem at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.89 · 99 matches

Oostende away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.86 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulte Waregem attack 1.62 + Oostende defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.74

Oostende attack 0.96 + Zulte Waregem defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Zulte Waregem scores more
45%
level
23%
Oostende scores more
32%

Zulte Waregem at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zulte Waregem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
F. Sakala↳ A. Skúlason
22'
J. Dompé← D. Opare
38'
G. Bruno
44'
Olivier Deschacht
64'
I. Boonen← F. Marquet
65'
J. Vossen↳ G. Bruno
69'
Arthur Theate
74'
C. McGeehan← N. Bätzner
74'
M. Gueye← M. Kvasina
76'
A. Sissako← B. Srarfi
76'
E. Pletinckx← J. Vossen
85'
A. Colassin← G. Bruno
85'
P. Armenakas← O. Govea
86'
R. D'Haese← M. DArpino
86'
E. Patoulidis← A. Skúlason

Statistics

ZulteOostende
Overview
7Corners9
Discipline
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Zulte Waregem vs Oostende

Zulte Waregem beat Oostende 2-1 in Jupiler Pro League on January 31, 2021.

Goals: F. Sakala (14'), G. Bruno (38'), J. Vossen (65').

The match was played at Regenboogstadion in Waregem.