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Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Zulte Waregem
Zulte Waregem
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Beerschot VA
Beerschot VA
11/28/2021Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 16Elindus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Zulte Waregem49%
×Draw22%
Beerschot VA29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zulte Waregem
1.96
Beerschot VA
1.48

Zulte Waregem creates 32% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 54 away

creates per match

Zulte Waregem
1.62
Beerschot VA
1.07

allows per match

Zulte Waregem
1.88
Beerschot VA
2.30

finishing

Zulte Waregem+0.00on par
Beerschot VA+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulte Waregem ↓

Beerschot VA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Zulte Waregem or draw
71%
Zulte Waregem or Beerschot VA
78%
Draw or Beerschot VA
51%

Winning margin

Zulte Waregem wins by 2+
28%
Beerschot VA wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zulte Waregem 1+ goals
86%
Zulte Waregem 2+ goals
58%
Zulte Waregem 3+ goals
31%
Beerschot VA 1+ goals
77%
Beerschot VA 2+ goals
43%
Beerschot VA 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Zulte Waregem (draw refunded)
62%
Beerschot VA (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulte Waregem at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.88 · 98 matches

Beerschot VA away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.30 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulte Waregem attack 1.62 + Beerschot VA defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.96

Beerschot VA attack 1.07 + Zulte Waregem defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zulte Waregem scores more
49%
level
22%
Beerschot VA scores more
29%

Zulte Waregem at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zulte Waregem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA

Zulte Waregem beat Beerschot VA 2-0 in Jupiler Pro League on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Elindus Arena in Waregem.