Beerschot VA 3–3 Zulte Waregem: Result & Stats

Beerschot VA

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Zulte Waregem

1/29/2022

Jupiler Pro League · Round 25Olympisch Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Beerschot VA41%

×Draw23%

Zulte Waregem35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beerschot VAExpected goals in this matchZulte Waregem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.52

Beerschot VA

1.67

Zulte Waregem

1.52

Beerschot VA creates 10% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 99 away

1.36

creates per match

1.30

1.74

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Beerschot VA

1.36

Zulte Waregem

1.30

allows per match

Beerschot VA

1.74

Zulte Waregem

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beerschot VA+0.00on par

Zulte Waregem+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beerschot VA ↓

Zulte Waregem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Beerschot VA or draw

65%

Beerschot VA or Zulte Waregem

77%

Draw or Zulte Waregem

59%

Winning margin

Beerschot VA wins by 2+

21%

Zulte Waregem wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Beerschot VA 1+ goals

81%

Beerschot VA 2+ goals

50%

Beerschot VA 3+ goals

23%

Zulte Waregem 1+ goals

78%

Zulte Waregem 2+ goals

45%

Zulte Waregem 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Beerschot VA (draw refunded)

54%

Zulte Waregem (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beerschot VA at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.74 · 53 matches

Zulte Waregem away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.98 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beerschot VA attack 1.36 + Zulte Waregem defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.67

Zulte Waregem attack 1.30 + Beerschot VA defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Beerschot VA scores more

41%

level

23%

Zulte Waregem scores more

35%

Beerschot VA at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Beerschot VA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff