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Zulia FC vs Palestino — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Zulia FC
Zulia FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Palestino
Palestino
5/22/2019CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · 2nd RoundEstadio José Pachencho Romero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Zulia FC58%
×Draw27%
Palestino16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zulia FC
1.46
Palestino
0.61

Zulia FC creates 139% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 19 away

creates per match

Zulia FC
1.33
Palestino
0.89

allows per match

Zulia FC
0.33
Palestino
1.58

finishing

Zulia FC+0.00on par
Palestino+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulia FC ↓

Palestino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Zulia FC or draw
84%
Zulia FC or Palestino
73%
Draw or Palestino
42%

Winning margin

Zulia FC wins by 2+
30%
Palestino wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Zulia FC 1+ goals
77%
Zulia FC 2+ goals
43%
Zulia FC 3+ goals
18%
Palestino 1+ goals
46%
Palestino 2+ goals
13%
Palestino 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Zulia FC (draw refunded)
79%
Palestino (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulia FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Palestino away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulia FC attack 1.33 + Palestino defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

Palestino attack 0.89 + Zulia FC defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Zulia FC scores more
58%
level
27%
Palestino scores more
16%

Zulia FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Zulia FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zulia FC vs Palestino

Zulia FC beat Palestino 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio José Pachencho Romero in Maracaibo.