Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Palestino vs Zulia FC — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Palestino
Palestino
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Zulia FC
Zulia FC
Evelio Hernández 78' (pen)
5/29/2019CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · 2nd RoundMunicipal de La Cisterna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Palestino40%
×Draw28%
Zulia FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palestino
1.25
Zulia FC
1.09

Palestino creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 4 away

creates per match

Palestino
0.76
Zulia FC
1.00

allows per match

Palestino
1.18
Zulia FC
1.75

finishing

Palestino+0.00on par
Zulia FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palestino ↓

Zulia FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Palestino or draw
68%
Palestino or Zulia FC
72%
Draw or Zulia FC
60%

Winning margin

Palestino wins by 2+
18%
Zulia FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Palestino 1+ goals
71%
Palestino 2+ goals
36%
Palestino 3+ goals
13%
Zulia FC 1+ goals
66%
Zulia FC 2+ goals
30%
Zulia FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Palestino (draw refunded)
55%
Zulia FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palestino at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Zulia FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palestino attack 0.76 + Zulia FC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.25

Zulia FC attack 1.00 + Palestino defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Palestino scores more
40%
level
28%
Zulia FC scores more
32%

Palestino at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Palestino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
Cristóbal JorqueraPalestinoPalestino · M
7.9

Match Events

46'
Enzo Guerrero← César Cortés
51'
Frank Feltscher
70'
Fabián Ahumada← Lucas Passerini
72'
Agustin Farias
78'
Evelio HernándezPenalty
79'
Luis Mago
81'
Luis JimenezMissed penalty
82'
Renato Tarifeno← Luis Mago
82'
Miguel Celis← Junior Paredes
88'
Alejandro González
88'
Abel Casquete← Brayan Moya
90'
Guillermo Soto
90'
Roberto Gutierrez
90'
Luis Paz← Albert Zambrano

Possession

72%Palestino

Shots

32Palestino

Pass accuracy

56%Palestino

Statistics

PalestinoZulia
Overview
72%Possession28%
32Total Shots8
13Corners3
19Fouls16
Shots
32Total Shots8
8On Target3
15Off Target3
9Blocked2
15Inside Box4
17Outside Box4
Passing
72%Possession28%
556Total Passes215
468Accurate Passes139
84%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
2Saves8
Discipline
19Fouls16
4Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards–

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Palestino 0–1 Zulia FC

Zulia FC beat Palestino 1-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 29, 2019.

Goals: Evelio Hernández (78' pen).

Palestino controlled possession (72%) and registered 32 shots to 8.

The match was played at Municipal de La Cisterna in La Cisterna.