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Zulia FC vs Mineros de Guyana — Primera División 2018

Zulia FC
Zulia FC
CANC
20:00
Mineros de Guyana
Mineros de Guyana
4/5/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 10Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Zulia FC46%
×Draw25%
Mineros de Guyana28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zulia FC
1.54
Mineros de Guyana
1.14

Zulia FC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 94 away

creates per match

Zulia FC
1.48
Mineros de Guyana
1.06

allows per match

Zulia FC
1.22
Mineros de Guyana
1.59

finishing

Zulia FC+0.00on par
Mineros de Guyana+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulia FC ↓

Mineros de Guyana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Zulia FC or draw
72%
Zulia FC or Mineros de Guyana
75%
Draw or Mineros de Guyana
54%

Winning margin

Zulia FC wins by 2+
23%
Mineros de Guyana wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zulia FC 1+ goals
79%
Zulia FC 2+ goals
45%
Zulia FC 3+ goals
20%
Mineros de Guyana 1+ goals
68%
Mineros de Guyana 2+ goals
32%
Mineros de Guyana 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zulia FC (draw refunded)
62%
Mineros de Guyana (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulia FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

Mineros de Guyana away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.59 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulia FC attack 1.48 + Mineros de Guyana defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.54

Mineros de Guyana attack 1.06 + Zulia FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zulia FC scores more
46%
level
25%
Mineros de Guyana scores more
28%

Zulia FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zulia FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zulia FC vs Mineros de Guyana — Match Preview

Zulia FC face Mineros de Guyana on April 5, 2020 in this Primera División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Zulia FC host Mineros de Guyana at Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.