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Mineros de Guyana vs Zulia FC — Primera División 2018

Mineros de Guyana
Mineros de Guyana
CANC
20:00
Zulia FC
Zulia FC
9/20/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 29CTE Cachamay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Mineros de Guyana47%
×Draw26%
Zulia FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mineros de Guyana
1.52
Zulia FC
1.09

Mineros de Guyana creates 39% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 66 away

creates per match

Mineros de Guyana
1.43
Zulia FC
1.06

allows per match

Mineros de Guyana
1.13
Zulia FC
1.61

finishing

Mineros de Guyana+0.00on par
Zulia FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mineros de Guyana ↓

Zulia FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mineros de Guyana or draw
73%
Mineros de Guyana or Zulia FC
74%
Draw or Zulia FC
53%

Winning margin

Mineros de Guyana wins by 2+
24%
Zulia FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mineros de Guyana 1+ goals
78%
Mineros de Guyana 2+ goals
45%
Mineros de Guyana 3+ goals
20%
Zulia FC 1+ goals
66%
Zulia FC 2+ goals
30%
Zulia FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mineros de Guyana (draw refunded)
63%
Zulia FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mineros de Guyana at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.13 · 91 matches

Zulia FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.61 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mineros de Guyana attack 1.43 + Zulia FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.52

Zulia FC attack 1.06 + Mineros de Guyana defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mineros de Guyana scores more
47%
level
26%
Zulia FC scores more
27%

Mineros de Guyana at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mineros de Guyana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineros de Guyana face Zulia FC (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Mineros de Guyana hosting Zulia FC. Match starts September 20, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Mineros de Guyana host Zulia FC at CTE Cachamay.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.