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Zulia FC vs Gran Valencia — Primera División 2018

Zulia FC
Zulia FC
CANC
20:00
Gran Valencia
Gran Valencia
9/13/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 28Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Zulia FC48%
×Draw26%
Gran Valencia26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zulia FC
1.54
Gran Valencia
1.06

Zulia FC creates 45% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 23 away

creates per match

Zulia FC
1.48
Gran Valencia
0.91

allows per match

Zulia FC
1.22
Gran Valencia
1.61

finishing

Zulia FC+0.00on par
Gran Valencia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulia FC ↓

Gran Valencia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zulia FC or draw
74%
Zulia FC or Gran Valencia
74%
Draw or Gran Valencia
52%

Winning margin

Zulia FC wins by 2+
25%
Gran Valencia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zulia FC 1+ goals
79%
Zulia FC 2+ goals
45%
Zulia FC 3+ goals
20%
Gran Valencia 1+ goals
65%
Gran Valencia 2+ goals
29%
Gran Valencia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zulia FC (draw refunded)
65%
Gran Valencia (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulia FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

Gran Valencia away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulia FC attack 1.48 + Gran Valencia defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.54

Gran Valencia attack 0.91 + Zulia FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zulia FC scores more
48%
level
26%
Gran Valencia scores more
26%

Zulia FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zulia FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zulia FC vs Gran Valencia — Match Preview

Zulia FC face Gran Valencia on September 13, 2020 in this Primera División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Zulia FC host Gran Valencia at Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.