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Gran Valencia vs Zulia FC — Primera División 2018

Gran Valencia
Gran Valencia
CANC
20:30
Zulia FC
Zulia FC
3/29/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 9Estadio Giuseppe Antonelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Gran Valencia37%
×Draw28%
Zulia FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gran Valencia
1.21
Zulia FC
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 66 away

creates per match

Gran Valencia
0.81
Zulia FC
1.06

allows per match

Gran Valencia
1.29
Zulia FC
1.61

finishing

Gran Valencia+0.00on par
Zulia FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gran Valencia ↓

Zulia FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Gran Valencia or draw
65%
Gran Valencia or Zulia FC
72%
Draw or Zulia FC
63%

Winning margin

Gran Valencia wins by 2+
16%
Zulia FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Gran Valencia 1+ goals
70%
Gran Valencia 2+ goals
34%
Gran Valencia 3+ goals
12%
Zulia FC 1+ goals
69%
Zulia FC 2+ goals
33%
Zulia FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gran Valencia (draw refunded)
51%
Zulia FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gran Valencia at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Zulia FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.61 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gran Valencia attack 0.81 + Zulia FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.21

Zulia FC attack 1.06 + Gran Valencia defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Gran Valencia scores more
37%
level
28%
Zulia FC scores more
35%

Gran Valencia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Gran Valencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gran Valencia face Zulia FC (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Gran Valencia hosting Zulia FC. Match starts March 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Gran Valencia host Zulia FC at Estadio Giuseppe Antonelli.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.