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Zulia FC vs Estudiantes Caracas — Primera División 2018

Zulia FC
Zulia FC
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Estudiantes Caracas
Estudiantes Caracas
2/28/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 6Estadio José Encarnación Pachencho Romero (Maracaibo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Zulia FC53%
×Draw23%
Estudiantes Caracas24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zulia FC
1.81
Estudiantes Caracas
1.13

Zulia FC creates 60% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 35 away

creates per match

Zulia FC
1.48
Estudiantes Caracas
1.03

allows per match

Zulia FC
1.22
Estudiantes Caracas
2.14

finishing

Zulia FC+0.00on par
Estudiantes Caracas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulia FC ↓

Estudiantes Caracas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Zulia FC or draw
76%
Zulia FC or Estudiantes Caracas
77%
Draw or Estudiantes Caracas
47%

Winning margin

Zulia FC wins by 2+
30%
Estudiantes Caracas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zulia FC 1+ goals
84%
Zulia FC 2+ goals
54%
Zulia FC 3+ goals
27%
Estudiantes Caracas 1+ goals
68%
Estudiantes Caracas 2+ goals
31%
Estudiantes Caracas 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zulia FC (draw refunded)
69%
Estudiantes Caracas (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulia FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

Estudiantes Caracas away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.14 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulia FC attack 1.48 + Estudiantes Caracas defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.81

Estudiantes Caracas attack 1.03 + Zulia FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Zulia FC scores more
53%
level
23%
Estudiantes Caracas scores more
24%

Zulia FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Zulia FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zulia FC vs Estudiantes Caracas

Zulia FC beat Estudiantes Caracas 4-0 in Primera División on February 28, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio José Encarnación Pachencho Romero (Maracaibo).