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Estudiantes Caracas vs Zulia FC — Primera División 2018

Estudiantes Caracas
Estudiantes Caracas
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 1
Zulia FC
Zulia FC
9/28/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 13Estadio Olímpico Hermanos Ghersi Páez (Maracay)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Estudiantes Caracas38%
×Draw27%
Zulia FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estudiantes Caracas
1.31
Zulia FC
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 66 away

creates per match

Estudiantes Caracas
1.00
Zulia FC
1.06

allows per match

Estudiantes Caracas
1.44
Zulia FC
1.61

finishing

Estudiantes Caracas+0.00on par
Zulia FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes Caracas ↓

Zulia FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Estudiantes Caracas or draw
65%
Estudiantes Caracas or Zulia FC
73%
Draw or Zulia FC
62%

Winning margin

Estudiantes Caracas wins by 2+
17%
Zulia FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Estudiantes Caracas 1+ goals
73%
Estudiantes Caracas 2+ goals
38%
Estudiantes Caracas 3+ goals
14%
Zulia FC 1+ goals
71%
Zulia FC 2+ goals
36%
Zulia FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes Caracas (draw refunded)
52%
Zulia FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes Caracas at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.44 · 36 matches

Zulia FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.61 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes Caracas attack 1.00 + Zulia FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Zulia FC attack 1.06 + Estudiantes Caracas defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Estudiantes Caracas scores more
38%
level
27%
Zulia FC scores more
35%

Estudiantes Caracas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Estudiantes Caracas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Estudiantes Caracas 2–5 Zulia FC

Zulia FC beat Estudiantes Caracas 5-2 in Primera División on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Hermanos Ghersi Páez (Maracay).