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Zugdidi vs Samgurali — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Zugdidi
Zugdidi
CANC
11:00
Samgurali
Samgurali
10/26/2020Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Zugdidi36%
×Draw28%
Samgurali35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zugdidi
1.17
Samgurali
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 6 away

creates per match

Zugdidi
1.33
Samgurali
0.67

allows per match

Zugdidi
1.63
Samgurali
1.00

finishing

Zugdidi+0.00on par
Samgurali+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zugdidi ↓

Samgurali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Zugdidi or draw
65%
Zugdidi or Samgurali
72%
Draw or Samgurali
64%

Winning margin

Zugdidi wins by 2+
15%
Samgurali wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zugdidi 1+ goals
69%
Zugdidi 2+ goals
33%
Zugdidi 3+ goals
11%
Samgurali 1+ goals
68%
Samgurali 2+ goals
32%
Samgurali 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zugdidi (draw refunded)
51%
Samgurali (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zugdidi at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.63 · 24 matches

Samgurali away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zugdidi attack 1.33 + Samgurali defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Samgurali attack 0.67 + Zugdidi defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Zugdidi scores more
36%
level
28%
Samgurali scores more
35%

Zugdidi at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Zugdidi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zugdidi face Samgurali (Erovnuli Liga 2)

Erovnuli Liga 2 returns with Zugdidi hosting Samgurali. Match starts October 26, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.