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Samgurali vs Zugdidi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Samgurali
Samgurali
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zugdidi
Zugdidi
7/22/2020Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 4Ramaz Shengelias Sakhelobis Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Samgurali55%
×Draw28%
Zugdidi18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samgurali
1.38
Zugdidi
0.65

Samgurali creates 112% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 24 away

creates per match

Samgurali
1.33
Zugdidi
0.96

allows per match

Samgurali
0.33
Zugdidi
1.42

finishing

Samgurali+0.00on par
Zugdidi+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samgurali ↓

Zugdidi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Samgurali or draw
82%
Samgurali or Zugdidi
72%
Draw or Zugdidi
45%

Winning margin

Samgurali wins by 2+
27%
Zugdidi wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Samgurali 1+ goals
75%
Samgurali 2+ goals
40%
Samgurali 3+ goals
16%
Zugdidi 1+ goals
48%
Zugdidi 2+ goals
14%
Zugdidi 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Samgurali (draw refunded)
76%
Zugdidi (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samgurali at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Zugdidi away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samgurali attack 1.33 + Zugdidi defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.38

Zugdidi attack 0.96 + Samgurali defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Samgurali scores more
55%
level
28%
Zugdidi scores more
18%

Samgurali at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Samgurali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Samgurali 0–0 Zugdidi

Samgurali and Zugdidi drew 0-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on July 22, 2020.

The match was played at Ramaz Shengelias Sakhelobis Stadioni in Kutaisi.