Zugdidi 0–2 Kolkheti Poti: Result & Stats

Zugdidi

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Kolkheti Poti

3/10/2019

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 2Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava (Martvili)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Zugdidi40%

×Draw25%

Kolkheti Poti35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZugdidiExpected goals in this matchKolkheti Poti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.40

Zugdidi

1.52

Kolkheti Poti

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 46 away

1.33

creates per match

1.17

1.63

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Zugdidi

1.33

Kolkheti Poti

1.17

allows per match

Zugdidi

1.63

Kolkheti Poti

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zugdidi+0.00on par

Kolkheti Poti+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zugdidi ↓

Kolkheti Poti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Zugdidi or draw

65%

Zugdidi or Kolkheti Poti

75%

Draw or Kolkheti Poti

60%

Winning margin

Zugdidi wins by 2+

20%

Kolkheti Poti wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Zugdidi 1+ goals

78%

Zugdidi 2+ goals

45%

Zugdidi 3+ goals

20%

Kolkheti Poti 1+ goals

75%

Kolkheti Poti 2+ goals

41%

Kolkheti Poti 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Zugdidi (draw refunded)

54%

Kolkheti Poti (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zugdidi at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.63 · 24 matches

Kolkheti Poti away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zugdidi attack 1.33 + Kolkheti Poti defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.52

Kolkheti Poti attack 1.17 + Zugdidi defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zugdidi scores more

40%

level

25%

Kolkheti Poti scores more

35%

Zugdidi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zugdidi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff