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Kolkheti Poti vs Zugdidi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Kolkheti Poti
Kolkheti Poti
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
Zugdidi
Zugdidi
10/6/2019Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 29Stadioni Pazisi (Poti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Kolkheti Poti47%
×Draw26%
Zugdidi27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolkheti Poti
1.48
Zugdidi
1.05

Kolkheti Poti creates 41% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 24 away

creates per match

Kolkheti Poti
1.54
Zugdidi
0.96

allows per match

Kolkheti Poti
1.15
Zugdidi
1.42

finishing

Kolkheti Poti+0.00on par
Zugdidi+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolkheti Poti ↓

Zugdidi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kolkheti Poti or draw
73%
Kolkheti Poti or Zugdidi
74%
Draw or Zugdidi
53%

Winning margin

Kolkheti Poti wins by 2+
23%
Zugdidi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kolkheti Poti 1+ goals
77%
Kolkheti Poti 2+ goals
43%
Kolkheti Poti 3+ goals
19%
Zugdidi 1+ goals
65%
Zugdidi 2+ goals
28%
Zugdidi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kolkheti Poti (draw refunded)
64%
Zugdidi (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolkheti Poti at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 46 matches

Zugdidi away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolkheti Poti attack 1.54 + Zugdidi defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Zugdidi attack 0.96 + Kolkheti Poti defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kolkheti Poti scores more
47%
level
26%
Zugdidi scores more
27%

Kolkheti Poti at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kolkheti Poti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kolkheti Poti vs Zugdidi

Zugdidi beat Kolkheti Poti 6-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Stadioni Pazisi (Poti).