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Zugdidi vs Aragvi Dusheti — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Zugdidi
Zugdidi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Aragvi Dusheti
Aragvi Dusheti
7/28/2020Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 5Tsentraluri Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Zugdidi39%
×Draw27%
Aragvi Dusheti34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zugdidi
1.31
Aragvi Dusheti
1.19

Zugdidi creates 10% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 35 away

creates per match

Zugdidi
1.33
Aragvi Dusheti
0.74

allows per match

Zugdidi
1.63
Aragvi Dusheti
1.29

finishing

Zugdidi+0.00on par
Aragvi Dusheti+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zugdidi ↓

Aragvi Dusheti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Zugdidi or draw
66%
Zugdidi or Aragvi Dusheti
73%
Draw or Aragvi Dusheti
61%

Winning margin

Zugdidi wins by 2+
18%
Aragvi Dusheti wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Zugdidi 1+ goals
73%
Zugdidi 2+ goals
38%
Zugdidi 3+ goals
14%
Aragvi Dusheti 1+ goals
70%
Aragvi Dusheti 2+ goals
33%
Aragvi Dusheti 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Zugdidi (draw refunded)
54%
Aragvi Dusheti (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zugdidi at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.63 · 24 matches

Aragvi Dusheti away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zugdidi attack 1.33 + Aragvi Dusheti defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Aragvi Dusheti attack 0.74 + Zugdidi defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Zugdidi scores more
39%
level
27%
Aragvi Dusheti scores more
34%

Zugdidi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zugdidi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Zugdidi 1–1 Aragvi Dusheti

Zugdidi and Aragvi Dusheti drew 1-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on July 28, 2020.

The match was played at Tsentraluri Stadioni in Anaklia.