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Aragvi Dusheti vs Zugdidi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Aragvi Dusheti
Aragvi Dusheti
CANC
11:00
Zugdidi
Zugdidi
11/2/2020Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Aragvi Dusheti45%
×Draw26%
Zugdidi30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Zugdidi
1.18

Aragvi Dusheti creates 27% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 24 away

creates per match

Aragvi Dusheti
1.57
Zugdidi
0.96

allows per match

Aragvi Dusheti
1.40
Zugdidi
1.42

finishing

Aragvi Dusheti+0.00on par
Zugdidi+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aragvi Dusheti ↓

Zugdidi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Aragvi Dusheti or draw
70%
Aragvi Dusheti or Zugdidi
74%
Draw or Zugdidi
55%

Winning margin

Aragvi Dusheti wins by 2+
22%
Zugdidi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Aragvi Dusheti 1+ goals
78%
Aragvi Dusheti 2+ goals
44%
Aragvi Dusheti 3+ goals
19%
Zugdidi 1+ goals
69%
Zugdidi 2+ goals
33%
Zugdidi 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Aragvi Dusheti (draw refunded)
60%
Zugdidi (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aragvi Dusheti at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.40 · 35 matches

Zugdidi away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aragvi Dusheti attack 1.57 + Zugdidi defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

Zugdidi attack 0.96 + Aragvi Dusheti defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aragvi Dusheti scores more
45%
level
26%
Zugdidi scores more
30%

Aragvi Dusheti at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Aragvi Dusheti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Aragvi Dusheti face Zugdidi (Erovnuli Liga 2)

Erovnuli Liga 2 returns with Aragvi Dusheti hosting Zugdidi. Match starts November 2, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.