Degerfors IF 3–1 IK Frej: Result & Stats

Degerfors IF

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

IK Frej

6/30/2018

Superettan · Round 15Stora Valla (Degerfors)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Degerfors IF52%

×Draw23%

IK Frej25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Degerfors IFExpected goals in this matchIK Frej

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.23

Degerfors IF

1.88

IK Frej

1.23

Degerfors IF creates 53% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

1.93

creates per match

1.30

1.17

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Degerfors IF

1.93

IK Frej

1.30

allows per match

Degerfors IF

1.17

IK Frej

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Degerfors IF+0.00on par

IK Frej+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

IK Frej →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw

75%

Degerfors IF or IK Frej

77%

Draw or IK Frej

48%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

30%

IK Frej wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

85%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

56%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

29%

IK Frej 1+ goals

71%

IK Frej 2+ goals

35%

IK Frej 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

68%

IK Frej (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.17 · 60 matches

IK Frej away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 1.93 + IK Frej defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.88

IK Frej attack 1.30 + Degerfors IF defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Degerfors IF scores more

52%

level

23%

IK Frej scores more

25%

Degerfors IF at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff