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IK Frej vs Degerfors IF — Superettan 2018

IK Frej
IK Frej
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
8/25/2019SuperettanSuperettan · Round 21Vikingavallen (Täby)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

IK Frej29%
×Draw24%
Degerfors IF47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IK Frej
1.26
Degerfors IF
1.68

Degerfors IF creates 33% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

creates per match

IK Frej
1.40
Degerfors IF
1.48

allows per match

IK Frej
1.87
Degerfors IF
1.13

finishing

IK Frej+0.00on par
Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK Frej ↓

Degerfors IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

IK Frej or draw
53%
IK Frej or Degerfors IF
76%
Draw or Degerfors IF
71%

Winning margin

IK Frej wins by 2+
12%
Degerfors IF wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

IK Frej 1+ goals
72%
IK Frej 2+ goals
36%
IK Frej 3+ goals
13%
Degerfors IF 1+ goals
81%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
50%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

IK Frej (draw refunded)
38%
Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK Frej at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.13 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK Frej attack 1.40 + Degerfors IF defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Degerfors IF attack 1.48 + IK Frej defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

IK Frej scores more
29%
level
24%
Degerfors IF scores more
47%

Degerfors IF at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: IK Frej 2–3 Degerfors IF

Degerfors IF beat IK Frej 3-2 in Superettan on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Vikingavallen (Täby).