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Zsámbéki SK vs Csornai SE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Zsámbéki SK
Zsámbéki SK
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Csornai SE
Csornai SE
2/19/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 22Zsámbéki SK Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zsámbéki SK39%
×Draw22%
Csornai SE39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zsámbéki SK
1.77
Csornai SE
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Zsámbéki SK
0.95
Csornai SE
1.00

allows per match

Zsámbéki SK
2.58
Csornai SE
2.58

finishing

Zsámbéki SK+0.00on par
Csornai SE+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zsámbéki SK ↓

Csornai SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Zsámbéki SK or draw
61%
Zsámbéki SK or Csornai SE
78%
Draw or Csornai SE
61%

Winning margin

Zsámbéki SK wins by 2+
20%
Csornai SE wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Zsámbéki SK 1+ goals
83%
Zsámbéki SK 2+ goals
53%
Zsámbéki SK 3+ goals
26%
Csornai SE 1+ goals
83%
Csornai SE 2+ goals
53%
Csornai SE 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Zsámbéki SK (draw refunded)
49%
Csornai SE (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zsámbéki SK at home — creates 0.95, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

Csornai SE away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zsámbéki SK attack 0.95 + Csornai SE defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.77

Csornai SE attack 1.00 + Zsámbéki SK defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Zsámbéki SK scores more
39%
level
22%
Csornai SE scores more
39%

Zsámbéki SK at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zsámbéki SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Zsámbéki SK 0–1 Csornai SE

Csornai SE beat Zsámbéki SK 1-0 in NB III - Southwest on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Zsámbéki SK Sporttelep in Zsámbék.