Csornai SE 5–0 Zsámbéki SK: Result & Stats

Csornai SE

FT

5 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Zsámbéki SK

8/14/2022

NB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 3Kocsis István Városi Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Csornai SE55%

×Draw21%

Zsámbéki SK24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Csornai SEExpected goals in this matchZsámbéki SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.34

Csornai SE

2.13

Zsámbéki SK

1.34

Csornai SE creates 59% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.21

creates per match

0.79

1.89

allows per match

3.05

creates per match

Csornai SE

1.21

Zsámbéki SK

0.79

allows per match

Csornai SE

1.89

Zsámbéki SK

3.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Csornai SE+0.00on par

Zsámbéki SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csornai SE ↓

Zsámbéki SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Csornai SE or draw

76%

Csornai SE or Zsámbéki SK

79%

Draw or Zsámbéki SK

45%

Winning margin

Csornai SE wins by 2+

33%

Zsámbéki SK wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Csornai SE 1+ goals

88%

Csornai SE 2+ goals

63%

Csornai SE 3+ goals

35%

Zsámbéki SK 1+ goals

74%

Zsámbéki SK 2+ goals

39%

Zsámbéki SK 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Csornai SE (draw refunded)

70%

Zsámbéki SK (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csornai SE at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

Zsámbéki SK away — creates 0.79, concedes 3.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csornai SE attack 1.21 + Zsámbéki SK defence 3.05 → ÷2 → 2.13

Zsámbéki SK attack 0.79 + Csornai SE defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Csornai SE scores more

55%

level

21%

Zsámbéki SK scores more

24%

Csornai SE at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Csornai SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff