Zrinski Jurjevac 2–0 Orijent 1919: Result & Stats

Zrinski Jurjevac

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Orijent 1919

9/1/2024

First NL · Round 3Stadion Gradski vrt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zrinski Jurjevac39%

×Draw27%

Orijent 191934%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zrinski JurjevacExpected goals in this matchOrijent 1919

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.23

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.34

Orijent 1919

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 109 away

1.15

creates per match

1.32

1.15

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.15

Orijent 1919

1.32

allows per match

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.15

Orijent 1919

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par

Orijent 1919+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zrinski Jurjevac ↓

Orijent 1919 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Zrinski Jurjevac or draw

66%

Zrinski Jurjevac or Orijent 1919

73%

Draw or Orijent 1919

61%

Winning margin

Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+

18%

Orijent 1919 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals

74%

Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals

39%

Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals

15%

Orijent 1919 1+ goals

71%

Orijent 1919 2+ goals

35%

Orijent 1919 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)

54%

Orijent 1919 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zrinski Jurjevac at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

Orijent 1919 away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.54 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.15 + Orijent 1919 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.34

Orijent 1919 attack 1.32 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Zrinski Jurjevac scores more

39%

level

27%

Orijent 1919 scores more

34%

Zrinski Jurjevac at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zrinski Jurjevac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff