Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Orijent 1919 vs Zrinski Jurjevac — First NL 2018

Orijent 1919
Orijent 1919
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Zrinski Jurjevac
Zrinski Jurjevac
4/13/2024First NLFirst NL · Round 26Stadion Krimeja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Orijent 191947%
×Draw26%
Zrinski Jurjevac26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orijent 1919
1.45
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.01

Orijent 1919 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 34 away

creates per match

Orijent 1919
1.36
Zrinski Jurjevac
0.91

allows per match

Orijent 1919
1.11
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.53

finishing

Orijent 1919+0.00on par
Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orijent 1919 ↓

Zrinski Jurjevac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Orijent 1919 or draw
74%
Orijent 1919 or Zrinski Jurjevac
74%
Draw or Zrinski Jurjevac
53%

Winning margin

Orijent 1919 wins by 2+
23%
Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Orijent 1919 1+ goals
77%
Orijent 1919 2+ goals
42%
Orijent 1919 3+ goals
18%
Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals
64%
Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals
27%
Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Orijent 1919 (draw refunded)
64%
Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orijent 1919 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.11 · 108 matches

Zrinski Jurjevac away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orijent 1919 attack 1.36 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.45

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 0.91 + Orijent 1919 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Orijent 1919 scores more
47%
level
26%
Zrinski Jurjevac scores more
26%

Orijent 1919 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Orijent 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: Orijent 1919 0–1 Zrinski Jurjevac

Zrinski Jurjevac beat Orijent 1919 1-0 in First NL on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Krimeja in Rijeka.