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Zrinski Jurjevac vs Medjimurje Cakovec — Second NL 2022

Zrinski Jurjevac
Zrinski Jurjevac
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Medjimurje Cakovec
Medjimurje Cakovec
L. Correa 13'
J. Rendulic 90+4'
P. Havojic 89'
10/21/2022Second NLSecond NL · Round 10Stadion NK Čepin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zrinski Jurjevac66%
×Draw20%
Medjimurje Cakovec14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zrinski Jurjevac
2.07
Medjimurje Cakovec
0.83

Zrinski Jurjevac creates 149% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Zrinski Jurjevac
1.47
Medjimurje Cakovec
1.00

allows per match

Zrinski Jurjevac
0.67
Medjimurje Cakovec
2.67

finishing

Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par
Medjimurje Cakovec+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zrinski Jurjevac ↓

Medjimurje Cakovec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Zrinski Jurjevac or draw
86%
Zrinski Jurjevac or Medjimurje Cakovec
80%
Draw or Medjimurje Cakovec
34%

Winning margin

Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+
41%
Medjimurje Cakovec wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals
87%
Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals
61%
Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals
34%
Medjimurje Cakovec 1+ goals
56%
Medjimurje Cakovec 2+ goals
20%
Medjimurje Cakovec 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)
82%
Medjimurje Cakovec (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zrinski Jurjevac at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Medjimurje Cakovec away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.47 + Medjimurje Cakovec defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.07

Medjimurje Cakovec attack 1.00 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Zrinski Jurjevac scores more
66%
level
20%
Medjimurje Cakovec scores more
14%

Zrinski Jurjevac at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Zrinski Jurjevac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
L. Correa
89'
P. Havojic
90+4'
J. Rendulic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Zrinski Jurjevac 1–2 Medjimurje Cakovec

Medjimurje Cakovec beat Zrinski Jurjevac 2-1 in Second NL on October 21, 2022.

Goals: L. Correa (13'), P. Havojic (89'), J. Rendulic (90+4').

The match was played at Stadion NK Čepin in Čepin.