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Medjimurje Cakovec vs Zrinski Jurjevac — Second NL 2022

Medjimurje Cakovec
Medjimurje Cakovec
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Zrinski Jurjevac
Zrinski Jurjevac
I. Lozic 17'
4/29/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 25Stadion SRC Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Medjimurje Cakovec12%
×Draw22%
Zrinski Jurjevac66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Medjimurje Cakovec
0.64
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.83

Zrinski Jurjevac creates 186% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Medjimurje Cakovec
0.47
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.53

allows per match

Medjimurje Cakovec
2.13
Zrinski Jurjevac
0.80

finishing

Medjimurje Cakovec+0.00on par
Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medjimurje Cakovec ↓

Zrinski Jurjevac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–116%
0–214%
0–39%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Medjimurje Cakovec or draw
34%
Medjimurje Cakovec or Zrinski Jurjevac
78%
Draw or Zrinski Jurjevac
88%

Winning margin

Medjimurje Cakovec wins by 2+
3%
Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Medjimurje Cakovec 1+ goals
47%
Medjimurje Cakovec 2+ goals
14%
Medjimurje Cakovec 3+ goals
3%
Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals
84%
Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals
54%
Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Medjimurje Cakovec (draw refunded)
16%
Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medjimurje Cakovec at home — creates 0.47, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Zrinski Jurjevac away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medjimurje Cakovec attack 0.47 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.64

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.53 + Medjimurje Cakovec defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Medjimurje Cakovec scores more
12%
level
22%
Zrinski Jurjevac scores more
66%

Zrinski Jurjevac at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Zrinski Jurjevac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
I. Lozic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Medjimurje Cakovec vs Zrinski Jurjevac

Zrinski Jurjevac beat Medjimurje Cakovec 1-0 in Second NL on April 29, 2023.

Goals: I. Lozic (17').

The match was played at Stadion SRC Mladost in Čakovec.