Zrinski Jurjevac 4–0 Jadran Poreč: Result & Stats

Zrinski Jurjevac

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Jadran Poreč

3/10/2023

Second NL · Round 18Stadion NK Čepin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zrinski Jurjevac67%

×Draw20%

Jadran Poreč14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zrinski JurjevacExpected goals in this matchJadran Poreč

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.83

Zrinski Jurjevac

2.10

Jadran Poreč

0.83

Zrinski Jurjevac creates 153% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

1.47

creates per match

1.00

0.67

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.47

Jadran Poreč

1.00

allows per match

Zrinski Jurjevac

0.67

Jadran Poreč

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par

Jadran Poreč+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zrinski Jurjevac ↓

Jadran Poreč →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Zrinski Jurjevac or draw

86%

Zrinski Jurjevac or Jadran Poreč

80%

Draw or Jadran Poreč

33%

Winning margin

Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+

42%

Jadran Poreč wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals

88%

Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals

62%

Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals

35%

Jadran Poreč 1+ goals

56%

Jadran Poreč 2+ goals

20%

Jadran Poreč 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)

83%

Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zrinski Jurjevac at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Jadran Poreč away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.47 + Jadran Poreč defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.10

Jadran Poreč attack 1.00 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Zrinski Jurjevac scores more

67%

level

20%

Jadran Poreč scores more

14%

Zrinski Jurjevac at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Zrinski Jurjevac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff