Jadran Poreč 1–2 Zrinski Jurjevac: Result & Stats

Jadran Poreč

FT

1 – 2

Zrinski Jurjevac

9/3/2022

Second NL · Round 3Stadion Veli Jože

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jadran Poreč28%

×Draw25%

Zrinski Jurjevac46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jadran PorečExpected goals in this matchZrinski Jurjevac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.54

Jadran Poreč

1.15

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.54

Zrinski Jurjevac creates 34% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

1.49

creates per match

1.53

1.56

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Jadran Poreč

1.49

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.53

allows per match

Jadran Poreč

1.56

Zrinski Jurjevac

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jadran Poreč+0.00on par

Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran Poreč ↓

Zrinski Jurjevac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Jadran Poreč or draw

54%

Jadran Poreč or Zrinski Jurjevac

75%

Draw or Zrinski Jurjevac

72%

Winning margin

Jadran Poreč wins by 2+

11%

Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Jadran Poreč 1+ goals

68%

Jadran Poreč 2+ goals

32%

Jadran Poreč 3+ goals

11%

Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals

79%

Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals

45%

Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)

38%

Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran Poreč at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

Zrinski Jurjevac away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran Poreč attack 1.49 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.15

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.53 + Jadran Poreč defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jadran Poreč scores more

28%

level

25%

Zrinski Jurjevac scores more

46%

Zrinski Jurjevac at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zrinski Jurjevac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff