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Zrinski Jurjevac vs Jadran LP — Second NL 2022

Zrinski Jurjevac
Zrinski Jurjevac
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jadran LP
Jadran LP
P. Korov 71'
5/5/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 26Stadion NK Čepin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zrinski Jurjevac40%
×Draw29%
Jadran LP31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zrinski Jurjevac
1.20
Jadran LP
1.02

Zrinski Jurjevac creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

creates per match

Zrinski Jurjevac
1.47
Jadran LP
1.38

allows per match

Zrinski Jurjevac
0.67
Jadran LP
0.93

finishing

Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par
Jadran LP+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zrinski Jurjevac ↓

Jadran LP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Zrinski Jurjevac or draw
69%
Zrinski Jurjevac or Jadran LP
71%
Draw or Jadran LP
60%

Winning margin

Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+
17%
Jadran LP wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals
70%
Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals
34%
Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals
12%
Jadran LP 1+ goals
64%
Jadran LP 2+ goals
27%
Jadran LP 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)
56%
Jadran LP (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zrinski Jurjevac at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Jadran LP away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.47 + Jadran LP defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.20

Jadran LP attack 1.38 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zrinski Jurjevac scores more
40%
level
29%
Jadran LP scores more
31%

Zrinski Jurjevac at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zrinski Jurjevac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

71'
P. Korov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zrinski Jurjevac vs Jadran LP

Zrinski Jurjevac beat Jadran LP 1-0 in Second NL on May 5, 2023.

Goals: P. Korov (71').

The match was played at Stadion NK Čepin in Čepin.