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Jadran LP vs Zrinski Jurjevac — Second NL 2022

Jadran LP
Jadran LP
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Zrinski Jurjevac
Zrinski Jurjevac
L. Petrovic 27'
P. Pejic 12'
10/29/2022Second NLSecond NL · Round 11Igralište NK Jadran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jadran LP42%
×Draw25%
Zrinski Jurjevac33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jadran LP
1.49
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.28

Jadran LP creates 16% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Jadran LP
2.18
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.53

allows per match

Jadran LP
1.03
Zrinski Jurjevac
0.80

finishing

Jadran LP+0.00on par
Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran LP ↓

Zrinski Jurjevac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Jadran LP or draw
67%
Jadran LP or Zrinski Jurjevac
75%
Draw or Zrinski Jurjevac
58%

Winning margin

Jadran LP wins by 2+
21%
Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Jadran LP 1+ goals
77%
Jadran LP 2+ goals
44%
Jadran LP 3+ goals
19%
Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals
72%
Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals
37%
Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Jadran LP (draw refunded)
56%
Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran LP at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Zrinski Jurjevac away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran LP attack 2.18 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.49

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.53 + Jadran LP defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jadran LP scores more
42%
level
25%
Zrinski Jurjevac scores more
33%

Jadran LP at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jadran LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
P. Pejic
27'
L. Petrovic
90+6'
M. Gotovac
90+6'
M. Gotovac

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jadran LP vs Zrinski Jurjevac

Jadran LP and Zrinski Jurjevac drew 1-1 in Second NL on October 29, 2022.

Goals: P. Pejic (12'), L. Petrovic (27').

The match was played at Igralište NK Jadran in Ploče.