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Zrinski Jurjevac vs Hrvace — Second NL 2022

Zrinski Jurjevac
Zrinski Jurjevac
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Hrvace
Hrvace
H. Milic 62'
E. Rebenja 4'
L. Kekez 68'
T. Klepo 45+3'
K. Luetic 36'
9/30/2022Second NLSecond NL · Round 7Stadion NK Čepin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zrinski Jurjevac49%
×Draw25%
Hrvace26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zrinski Jurjevac
1.60
Hrvace
1.08

Zrinski Jurjevac creates 48% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Zrinski Jurjevac
1.47
Hrvace
1.49

allows per match

Zrinski Jurjevac
0.67
Hrvace
1.73

finishing

Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par
Hrvace+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zrinski Jurjevac ↓

Hrvace →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Zrinski Jurjevac or draw
74%
Zrinski Jurjevac or Hrvace
75%
Draw or Hrvace
51%

Winning margin

Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+
26%
Hrvace wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals
80%
Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals
47%
Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals
22%
Hrvace 1+ goals
66%
Hrvace 2+ goals
29%
Hrvace 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)
66%
Hrvace (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zrinski Jurjevac at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Hrvace away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.47 + Hrvace defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.60

Hrvace attack 1.49 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zrinski Jurjevac scores more
49%
level
25%
Hrvace scores more
26%

Zrinski Jurjevac at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zrinski Jurjevac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
E. Rebenja
36'
K. Luetic
45+3'
T. Klepo
62'
H. Milic
68'
L. Kekez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Zrinski Jurjevac 2–3 Hrvace

Hrvace beat Zrinski Jurjevac 3-2 in Second NL on September 30, 2022.

Goals: E. Rebenja (4'), K. Luetic (36'), T. Klepo (45+3'), H. Milic (62'), L. Kekez (68').

The match was played at Stadion NK Čepin in Čepin.