Hrvace 1–2 Zrinski Jurjevac: Result & Stats

Hrvace

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Zrinski Jurjevac

N. Pervan 38'

S. Salapic 81'

N. Silic 8'

4/6/2023

Second NL · Round 22Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hrvace36%

×Draw24%

Zrinski Jurjevac39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HrvaceExpected goals in this matchZrinski Jurjevac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.56

Hrvace

1.49

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

2.18

creates per match

1.53

1.60

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Hrvace

2.18

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.53

allows per match

Hrvace

1.60

Zrinski Jurjevac

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hrvace+0.00on par

Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvace ↓

Zrinski Jurjevac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Hrvace or draw

61%

Hrvace or Zrinski Jurjevac

76%

Draw or Zrinski Jurjevac

64%

Winning margin

Hrvace wins by 2+

17%

Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Hrvace 1+ goals

77%

Hrvace 2+ goals

44%

Hrvace 3+ goals

19%

Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals

79%

Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals

46%

Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Hrvace (draw refunded)

48%

Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvace at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

Zrinski Jurjevac away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvace attack 2.18 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.49

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.53 + Hrvace defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hrvace scores more

36%

level

24%

Zrinski Jurjevac scores more

39%

Zrinski Jurjevac at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zrinski Jurjevac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

N. Silic

38'

N. Pervan

81'

S. Salapic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff