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Zrinski Jurjevac vs Grobničan Čavle — Second NL 2022

Zrinski Jurjevac
Zrinski Jurjevac
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Grobničan Čavle
Grobničan Čavle
3/17/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 19Stadion NK Čepin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zrinski Jurjevac58%
×Draw24%
Grobničan Čavle18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zrinski Jurjevac
1.70
Grobničan Čavle
0.82

Zrinski Jurjevac creates 107% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

creates per match

Zrinski Jurjevac
1.47
Grobničan Čavle
0.98

allows per match

Zrinski Jurjevac
0.67
Grobničan Čavle
1.93

finishing

Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par
Grobničan Čavle+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zrinski Jurjevac ↓

Grobničan Čavle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Zrinski Jurjevac or draw
82%
Zrinski Jurjevac or Grobničan Čavle
76%
Draw or Grobničan Čavle
42%

Winning margin

Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+
32%
Grobničan Čavle wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals
82%
Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals
51%
Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals
24%
Grobničan Čavle 1+ goals
56%
Grobničan Čavle 2+ goals
20%
Grobničan Čavle 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)
76%
Grobničan Čavle (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zrinski Jurjevac at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Grobničan Čavle away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.47 + Grobničan Čavle defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.70

Grobničan Čavle attack 0.98 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Zrinski Jurjevac scores more
58%
level
24%
Grobničan Čavle scores more
18%

Zrinski Jurjevac at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Zrinski Jurjevac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zrinski Jurjevac vs Grobničan Čavle

Zrinski Jurjevac beat Grobničan Čavle 2-1 in Second NL on March 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion NK Čepin in Čepin.