Grobničan Čavle 0–3 Zrinski Jurjevac

Grobničan Čavle

FT

0 – 3

Zrinski Jurjevac

9/10/2022

Second NL · Round 4Stadion Adelija Haramija Beba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Grobničan Čavle33%

×Draw25%

Zrinski Jurjevac42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Grobničan ČavleExpected goals in this matchZrinski Jurjevac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.50

Grobničan Čavle

1.29

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.50

Zrinski Jurjevac creates 16% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

1.78

creates per match

1.53

1.48

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Grobničan Čavle

1.78

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.53

allows per match

Grobničan Čavle

1.48

Zrinski Jurjevac

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grobničan Čavle+0.00on par

Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grobničan Čavle ↓

Zrinski Jurjevac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Grobničan Čavle or draw

58%

Grobničan Čavle or Zrinski Jurjevac

75%

Draw or Zrinski Jurjevac

67%

Winning margin

Grobničan Čavle wins by 2+

14%

Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Grobničan Čavle 1+ goals

72%

Grobničan Čavle 2+ goals

37%

Grobničan Čavle 3+ goals

14%

Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals

78%

Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals

44%

Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Grobničan Čavle (draw refunded)

44%

Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grobničan Čavle at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.48 · 60 matches

Zrinski Jurjevac away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grobničan Čavle attack 1.78 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.29

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.53 + Grobničan Čavle defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Grobničan Čavle scores more

33%

level

25%

Zrinski Jurjevac scores more

42%

Zrinski Jurjevac at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zrinski Jurjevac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff