Zrinski Jurjevac 0–2 Dugopolje: Result & Stats

Zrinski Jurjevac

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Dugopolje

D. Ljubić 90+2', 59'

9/18/2024

First NL · Round 6Stadion Gradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zrinski Jurjevac43%

×Draw27%

Dugopolje30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zrinski JurjevacExpected goals in this matchDugopolje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.09

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.37

Dugopolje

1.09

Zrinski Jurjevac creates 26% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 119 away

1.15

creates per match

1.03

1.15

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.15

Dugopolje

1.03

allows per match

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.15

Dugopolje

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par

Dugopolje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zrinski Jurjevac ↓

Dugopolje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Zrinski Jurjevac or draw

70%

Zrinski Jurjevac or Dugopolje

73%

Draw or Dugopolje

57%

Winning margin

Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+

20%

Dugopolje wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals

75%

Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals

40%

Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals

16%

Dugopolje 1+ goals

66%

Dugopolje 2+ goals

30%

Dugopolje 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)

59%

Dugopolje (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zrinski Jurjevac at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

Dugopolje away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.59 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.15 + Dugopolje defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.37

Dugopolje attack 1.03 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zrinski Jurjevac scores more

43%

level

27%

Dugopolje scores more

30%

Zrinski Jurjevac at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zrinski Jurjevac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

D. Vidović← M. Mendeš

51'

M. Basic

59'

D. Ljubić

62'

L. Janković← P. Korov

62'

B. Gvozdenović← L. Matković

63'

L. Kekez← M. Smodlaka

63'

B. Jemo← D. Šarić

63'

F. Lazar← I. Katić

66'

L. Kekez

70'

E. Preljević← E. Karalić

71'

D. Buličić← D. Bagarić

74'

L. Cubel

75'

D. Bulicic

77'

D. Ljubic

81'

G. Makuochukwu← B. Graonić

86'

J. Vuica← P. Pejić

90+2'

D. Ljubić

Zrinski

Dugopolje

1

6

27

16

24

20

▼

Graonić

23

▼

Katić

11

▼

Smodlaka

21

▼

Bagarić

22

⚽2

Ljubić

28

▼

24

18

21

23

5

4

▼

Matković

9

▼

Mendeš

17

▼

Korov

11

Vukušić

10

▼

Pejić

19

▼

Karalić

Manager: M. Neretljak

46'▲D. Vidović←▼M. Mendeš

62'▲L. Janković←▼P. Korov

62'▲B. Gvozdenović←▼L. Matković

70'▲E. Preljević←▼E. Karalić

86'▲J. Vuica←▼P. Pejić

Zrinski Jurjevac substitutes

7Vidović2Janković15Gvozdenović16Preljević13Vuica6Iličić8Sušić12Buckingham20Pejić

Manager: M. Labrović

63'▲L. Kekez←▼M. Smodlaka

63'▲B. Jemo←▼D. Šarić

63'▲F. Lazar←▼I. Katić

71'▲D. Buličić←▼D. Bagarić

81'▲G. Makuochukwu←▼B. Graonić

Dugopolje substitutes

8Kekez26Jemo14Lazar17Buličić4Makuochukwu5Čeko12Pavela25Košćević29Cosic