Dugopolje 3–3 Zrinski Jurjevac: Result & Stats

Dugopolje

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Zrinski Jurjevac

D. Ljubić 90+6'

Z. Košćević 60', 39'

A. Vukušić 37'

P. Korov 9'

D. Vidović 5'

11/30/2024

First NL · Round 17Stadion Hrvatski vitezovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Dugopolje48%

×Draw27%

Zrinski Jurjevac26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DugopoljeExpected goals in this matchZrinski Jurjevac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.98

Dugopolje

1.45

Zrinski Jurjevac

0.98

Dugopolje creates 48% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 34 away

1.36

creates per match

0.91

1.05

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Dugopolje

1.36

Zrinski Jurjevac

0.91

allows per match

Dugopolje

1.05

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dugopolje+0.00on par

Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dugopolje ↓

Zrinski Jurjevac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Dugopolje or draw

74%

Dugopolje or Zrinski Jurjevac

73%

Draw or Zrinski Jurjevac

52%

Winning margin

Dugopolje wins by 2+

24%

Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dugopolje 1+ goals

77%

Dugopolje 2+ goals

42%

Dugopolje 3+ goals

18%

Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals

62%

Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals

26%

Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dugopolje (draw refunded)

65%

Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dugopolje at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.05 · 122 matches

Zrinski Jurjevac away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dugopolje attack 1.36 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.45

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 0.91 + Dugopolje defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dugopolje scores more

48%

level

27%

Zrinski Jurjevac scores more

26%

Dugopolje at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dugopolje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

9'

37'

39'

45+1'

60'

64'

M. Smodlaka← D. Bagarić

64'

F. Lazar← D. Balić

64'

J. Vuica← B. Knežević

66'

D. Šarić← Z. Košćević

71'

M. Stanic

72'

M. Pajic

72'

I. Katic

73'

D. Vidovic

74'

M. Basic

80'

D. Iličić← D. Vidović

84'

D. Čeko← M. Bašić

84'

B. Ivanda← I. Katić

90+6'

D. Ljubic

90+2'

L. Baričjak← A. Vukušić

90+6'

D. Ljubić

Dugopolje

Zrinski

24

15

11

23

8

▼

Knežević

27

Gadže

14

⚽

▼

Vidović

17

⚽

Korov

7

⚽

▼

77

10

1

6

17

27

18

▼

Balić

24

▼

Bašić

23

▼

Katić

4

Makuochuk

21

▼

Bagarić

22

⚽

Ljubić

25

⚽2

▼

Košćević

Manager: M. Labrović

64'▲M. Smodlaka←▼D. Bagarić

64'▲F. Lazar←▼D. Balić

66'▲D. Šarić←▼Z. Košćević

84'▲D. Čeko←▼M. Bašić

84'▲B. Ivanda←▼I. Katić

Dugopolje substitutes

11Smodlaka14Lazar7Šarić5Čeko10Ivanda8Kekez12Pavela26Roić28Radan

Manager: M. Đuričić

64'▲J. Vuica←▼B. Knežević

80'▲D. Iličić←▼D. Vidović

90+2'▲L. Baričjak←▼A. Vukušić

Zrinski Jurjevac substitutes

2Vuica16Iličić18Baričjak9Pejić12Damjanović4Juričić20Omerović