Zrinski Jurjevac 2–1 Dugo Selo: Result & Stats

Zrinski Jurjevac

FT

2 – 1

Dugo Selo

10/14/2022

Second NL · Round 9Stadion NK Čepin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zrinski Jurjevac52%

×Draw25%

Dugo Selo23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zrinski JurjevacExpected goals in this matchDugo Selo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.96

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.59

Dugo Selo

0.96

Zrinski Jurjevac creates 66% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

1.47

creates per match

1.25

0.67

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.47

Dugo Selo

1.25

allows per match

Zrinski Jurjevac

0.67

Dugo Selo

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par

Dugo Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zrinski Jurjevac ↓

Dugo Selo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Zrinski Jurjevac or draw

77%

Zrinski Jurjevac or Dugo Selo

75%

Draw or Dugo Selo

48%

Winning margin

Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+

27%

Dugo Selo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals

80%

Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals

47%

Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals

21%

Dugo Selo 1+ goals

62%

Dugo Selo 2+ goals

25%

Dugo Selo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)

69%

Dugo Selo (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zrinski Jurjevac at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Dugo Selo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.72 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.47 + Dugo Selo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.59

Dugo Selo attack 1.25 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Zrinski Jurjevac scores more

52%

level

25%

Dugo Selo scores more

23%

Zrinski Jurjevac at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zrinski Jurjevac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff