Dugo Selo 0–1 Zrinski Jurjevac: Result & Stats

Dugo Selo

FT

0 – 1

Zrinski Jurjevac

4/21/2023

Second NL · Round 24Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dugo Selo29%

×Draw26%

Zrinski Jurjevac45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dugo SeloExpected goals in this matchZrinski Jurjevac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.43

Dugo Selo

1.08

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.43

Zrinski Jurjevac creates 32% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

1.35

creates per match

1.53

1.33

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Dugo Selo

1.35

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.53

allows per match

Dugo Selo

1.33

Zrinski Jurjevac

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dugo Selo+0.00on par

Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dugo Selo ↓

Zrinski Jurjevac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dugo Selo or draw

55%

Dugo Selo or Zrinski Jurjevac

74%

Draw or Zrinski Jurjevac

71%

Winning margin

Dugo Selo wins by 2+

11%

Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Dugo Selo 1+ goals

66%

Dugo Selo 2+ goals

29%

Dugo Selo 3+ goals

10%

Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals

76%

Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals

42%

Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Dugo Selo (draw refunded)

39%

Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dugo Selo at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

Zrinski Jurjevac away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dugo Selo attack 1.35 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.08

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.53 + Dugo Selo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dugo Selo scores more

29%

level

26%

Zrinski Jurjevac scores more

45%

Zrinski Jurjevac at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zrinski Jurjevac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff