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Zrinski Jurjevac vs Bjelovar — Second NL 2022

Zrinski Jurjevac
Zrinski Jurjevac
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bjelovar
Bjelovar
P. Korov 80'
4/14/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 23Stadion NK Čepin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zrinski Jurjevac50%
×Draw26%
Bjelovar24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zrinski Jurjevac
1.47
Bjelovar
0.93

Zrinski Jurjevac creates 58% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 59 away

creates per match

Zrinski Jurjevac
1.47
Bjelovar
1.19

allows per match

Zrinski Jurjevac
0.67
Bjelovar
1.47

finishing

Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par
Bjelovar+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zrinski Jurjevac ↓

Bjelovar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Zrinski Jurjevac or draw
76%
Zrinski Jurjevac or Bjelovar
74%
Draw or Bjelovar
50%

Winning margin

Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+
25%
Bjelovar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals
77%
Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals
43%
Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals
18%
Bjelovar 1+ goals
61%
Bjelovar 2+ goals
24%
Bjelovar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)
68%
Bjelovar (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zrinski Jurjevac at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Bjelovar away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.47 + Bjelovar defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.47

Bjelovar attack 1.19 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zrinski Jurjevac scores more
50%
level
26%
Bjelovar scores more
24%

Zrinski Jurjevac at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zrinski Jurjevac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

80'
P. Korov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zrinski Jurjevac vs Bjelovar

Zrinski Jurjevac beat Bjelovar 1-0 in Second NL on April 14, 2023.

Goals: P. Korov (80').

The match was played at Stadion NK Čepin in Čepin.