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Bjelovar vs Zrinski Jurjevac — Second NL 2022

Bjelovar
Bjelovar
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Zrinski Jurjevac
Zrinski Jurjevac
Unknown 33'
10/8/2022Second NLSecond NL · Round 8Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bjelovar36%
×Draw26%
Zrinski Jurjevac39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bjelovar
1.34
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Bjelovar
1.88
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.53

allows per match

Bjelovar
1.27
Zrinski Jurjevac
0.80

finishing

Bjelovar+0.00on par
Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bjelovar ↓

Zrinski Jurjevac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bjelovar or draw
61%
Bjelovar or Zrinski Jurjevac
74%
Draw or Zrinski Jurjevac
64%

Winning margin

Bjelovar wins by 2+
16%
Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bjelovar 1+ goals
74%
Bjelovar 2+ goals
39%
Bjelovar 3+ goals
15%
Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals
75%
Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals
41%
Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Bjelovar (draw refunded)
48%
Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bjelovar at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

Zrinski Jurjevac away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bjelovar attack 1.88 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.34

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.53 + Bjelovar defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bjelovar scores more
36%
level
26%
Zrinski Jurjevac scores more
39%

Zrinski Jurjevac at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zrinski Jurjevac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bjelovar vs Zrinski Jurjevac

Zrinski Jurjevac beat Bjelovar 1-0 in Second NL on October 8, 2022.

Goals: ? (33').

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Bjelovar.