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Zrinjski vs Krupa na Vrbasu — Premijer Liga 2019

Zrinjski
Zrinjski
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Krupa na Vrbasu
Krupa na Vrbasu
2/27/2021Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 20Stadion Bijeli Brijeg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zrinjski71%
×Draw20%
Krupa na Vrbasu9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zrinjski
1.95
Krupa na Vrbasu
0.54

Zrinjski creates 261% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 17 away

creates per match

Zrinjski
2.26
Krupa na Vrbasu
0.47

allows per match

Zrinjski
0.61
Krupa na Vrbasu
1.65

finishing

Zrinjski+0.00on par
Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zrinjski ↓

Krupa na Vrbasu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Zrinjski or draw
91%
Zrinjski or Krupa na Vrbasu
80%
Draw or Krupa na Vrbasu
29%

Winning margin

Zrinjski wins by 2+
45%
Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Zrinjski 1+ goals
86%
Zrinjski 2+ goals
58%
Zrinjski 3+ goals
31%
Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals
42%
Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals
10%
Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Zrinjski (draw refunded)
88%
Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zrinjski at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.61 · 114 matches

Krupa na Vrbasu away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zrinjski attack 2.26 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.95

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 0.47 + Zrinjski defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Zrinjski scores more
71%
level
20%
Krupa na Vrbasu scores more
9%

Zrinjski at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Zrinjski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zrinjski vs Krupa na Vrbasu

Zrinjski beat Krupa na Vrbasu 1-0 in Premijer Liga on February 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Bijeli Brijeg in Mostar.